RECENT PUBLICATIONS (PEER-REVIEWED JOURNALS)
"Rising Waters, Falling Taxes: The Impact of Hurricane Sandy on Property Tax Assessments in New York City" (coauthor) with Guo, W., Miao, Q. & Hou, Y. at Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
Climate disasters can inflict significant property damage and depress housing markets, yet their effects on property tax administration remain poorly understood. Homeowners with or without property damage may face tax burdens that do not match changes in their property values after disasters. This study examines the impact of Hurricane Sandy on property values and tax assessments in New York City. Using a difference-in-differences approach and comprehensive property-level data, we find that (1) inundated properties faced greater tax burdens due to taxable values falling less than corresponding market values after the storm; (2) unaffected properties in flood zones saw even larger tax burden increases as market values fell while taxable values remained unchanged; and (3) higher-valued homes bore larger tax burden hikes. These uneven consequences largely reflect the interplay between market reactions to Hurricane Sandy and City’s tax relief measures and existing assessment policies, highlighting how property tax administration is intertwined with disaster responses in the era of climate change.
"Tax Salience and Citizen Evaluation of Government" (coauthor) with Schwegman, D. at Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory
This paper examines how tax salience—or how aware individuals are of their property tax payments that finance local public services—correlates with citizens’ evaluation of their local government. Drawing on theories of expectation formation for public services and fiscal illusion, we hypothesize that reduced tax salience is associated with lower normative expectations, which will correlate with increased reported satisfaction with their local government and a higher willingness to support additional taxation. Using data from a nationwide survey of homeowners, we provide evidence of robust correlations between lower tax salience and more positive citizen evaluation of government. This paper contributes to a growing literature in public administration that finds that the design of tax systems, tax complexity, and other factors outside of the control of street-level bureaucrats that provide public services can influence how individuals evaluate a government or public service.
"The Impact of Extreme Weather on Public Health Spending and Health Utilization" (first author) with Miao, Q.& Zhu, L.
at the International Journal of Public Health
This study examines the impact of extreme temperatures on hospital utilization and public health spending. Exploiting the random annual variations in hot and cold days and using nationwide county panel data, we first document the changes in hospital utilization associated with extreme temperature. We then analyze the fiscal impacts of temperature extremes on public medical reimbursements to Medicaid and Medicare beneficiaries as well as county government spending related to public health. Our results show that extreme heat and mild cold increase Medicaid benefit transfers, while extreme cold increases Medicare transfers. We also find that the fiscal impact of heat and cold on Medicaid costs is greater in areas with a higher share of senior populations and more generous State Medicaid programs. We also report that extreme cold and heat increase county government spending on public health and hospitals, partly financed through state grants. The positive relation between extreme temperature and public health spending implies that climate change can augment the fiscal burden on governments which eventually falls on taxpayers. Finally, this study advances our understanding of how heat and cold affect healthcare utilization of low-income and elderly populations and the roles public health insurance programs can play to mitigate the adverse health effects of temperature changes.
"The Influence of Efficiency Information on Citizen Perceptions of School District Outcomes" (coauthor) with Eric J. Brunner, Mark D. Robbins, and Bill Simonsen at Public Performance & Management Review
We conducted a survey experiment where we provided a randomly assigned group of United States citizens information about the efficiency of their school district while the control group did not receive such information. We then asked both groups questions about their perception of school district efficiency, their trust in the school district to do what is right, whether they would support taxes to increase school spending, and their desired level of school spending. We find that residents in the most efficient districts who are provided efficiency information are more likely to perceive their district as efficient and have higher levels of trust. On the other hand, we find that providing efficiency information causes residents in the least efficient school districts to favor lower levels of school spending. We also find evidence of a discontinuity at the efficiency/inefficiency margin suggesting that some citizens may employ a heuristic based on whether their district is above or below state averages.
“The Fiscal Costs of Public Health Crisis: Evidence from the Zika Crisis in the United States” (first author) with Judith Liu at Public Finance Review
This paper examines how public health crises affect public health insurance and medical assistance spending. We focus on the Zika virus outbreak in the U.S. and use nationwide county-level data from 2010 to 2019 to estimate the effects of confirmed virus exposure on public medical transfers, county government spending, and intergovernmental transfers for public health and welfare programs. Using an event study and difference-in-differences approaches, we find a temporary increase in Medicare reimbursement per enrollee during the peak of the viral outbreak. Public medical assistance transfers increased immediately in areas with high local transmissions but gradually decreased in areas with a larger share of reproductive-age women or Hispanic population. Most of the increased spending was financed by the federal and state governments. We do not find any statistically significant changes in county government spending or own-source revenue among other exposed counties.
“Do Homeowners Care about Tax Relief? Property Tax Relief and Tax Perceptions in the U.S.” at Public Budgeting and Finance
This study examines whether receiving property tax tax relief contributes to taxpayer’s preferences for local taxes and expenditures. Using a unique survey sample of 10,655 homeowners in 40 U.S. States in 2022, I test whether homeowners who receive property tax relief are more likely to prefer larger governments than those who do not. I find a negative association between property tax relief and opposition against property tax. Also, homeowners who receive property tax relief are more likely to support an increase in local taxes to finance additional public services provided by school districts and other local governments. Homeowners who receive property tax relief tend to display a weaker preference for local budget cuts and a stronger preference for property tax increases than homeowners who do not receive any relief. These results suggest that a reduction in tax bills may contribute to a higher tolerance for tax increases.
“The Impact of Performance Information on Citizen Perceptions of School District Efficiency, Trust in Government and Support for Taxes” (coauthor) with Brunner, E.J., & Robbins, M.D. & Simonsen, B., at Public Budgeting and Finance
We report the results of a random assignment experiment that examines the effect of revealing actual school district performance on three important outcomes: perceptions of efficiency, trust in government, and support for higher taxes for increased school spending. We randomly assign survey respondents to a control group or experimental condition that includes information about how their school district’s test scores compare to their state average. Our study includes 2,604 observations from an on-line panel fielded in the United States from October through December, 2022 which allows us to precisely estimate the effect of performance information on outcomes. We find that providing high performance information has significant and substantial effects that improve efficiency perceptions, trust in the school district, and support for tax increases.
"Property Valuation - Cycle Length and Assessment Outcomes" in The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics (first author) with Yilin Hou
The conventional belief regarding the frequency of property assessment has been that annual revaluation is optimal. Practices, however, vastly differ from this norm and the length of assessment cycles diverge widely across tax assessing jurisdictions. This study fills a gap in the literature by examining the relation between cycle length and assessment outcomes, using panel data from the early 2000s to 2016 in Virginia and New York as two representative states. We examine the conditional correlation between revaluation lag and assessment uniformity among tax assessing jurisdictions in Virginia. We find that assessment uniformity tends to be lower by three to six percent when revaluation is delayed by an additional year; however, the rate of deterioration does not vary across jurisdictions with different cycle lengths. In New York, we find that switching from irregular to annual assessment is positively associated with assessment uniformity and administrative costs.
“Returns to Scale in Property Assessment: Evidence from New York State’s Small Localities Coordination Program” in National Tax Journal, 2023 (first author) with Yilin Hou & John Yinger
This paper treats cooperative agreements among small tax-assessing jurisdictions as a natural experiment to explore economies of parcel scale in property assessment. Using 2003–2014 data, we estimate these scale economies using cost-function models with control functions. Findings show consistent evidence of increasing returns to parcel scale, holding assessment quality constant. Cost savings are larger at the lower end of the parcel distribution. Combining the assessment functions of two equal-sized jurisdictions each with 10,000 parcels reduces assessment costs by 46%. Local governments can save personnel, operational, and contractual costs by collaborating with nearby localities in conducting property assessments.
https://doi.org/10.1086/723127
"Rising Waters, Falling Taxes: The Impact of Hurricane Sandy on Property Tax Assessments in New York City" (coauthor) with Guo, W., Miao, Q. & Hou, Y. at Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
Climate disasters can inflict significant property damage and depress housing markets, yet their effects on property tax administration remain poorly understood. Homeowners with or without property damage may face tax burdens that do not match changes in their property values after disasters. This study examines the impact of Hurricane Sandy on property values and tax assessments in New York City. Using a difference-in-differences approach and comprehensive property-level data, we find that (1) inundated properties faced greater tax burdens due to taxable values falling less than corresponding market values after the storm; (2) unaffected properties in flood zones saw even larger tax burden increases as market values fell while taxable values remained unchanged; and (3) higher-valued homes bore larger tax burden hikes. These uneven consequences largely reflect the interplay between market reactions to Hurricane Sandy and City’s tax relief measures and existing assessment policies, highlighting how property tax administration is intertwined with disaster responses in the era of climate change.
"Tax Salience and Citizen Evaluation of Government" (coauthor) with Schwegman, D. at Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory
This paper examines how tax salience—or how aware individuals are of their property tax payments that finance local public services—correlates with citizens’ evaluation of their local government. Drawing on theories of expectation formation for public services and fiscal illusion, we hypothesize that reduced tax salience is associated with lower normative expectations, which will correlate with increased reported satisfaction with their local government and a higher willingness to support additional taxation. Using data from a nationwide survey of homeowners, we provide evidence of robust correlations between lower tax salience and more positive citizen evaluation of government. This paper contributes to a growing literature in public administration that finds that the design of tax systems, tax complexity, and other factors outside of the control of street-level bureaucrats that provide public services can influence how individuals evaluate a government or public service.
"The Impact of Extreme Weather on Public Health Spending and Health Utilization" (first author) with Miao, Q.& Zhu, L.
at the International Journal of Public Health
This study examines the impact of extreme temperatures on hospital utilization and public health spending. Exploiting the random annual variations in hot and cold days and using nationwide county panel data, we first document the changes in hospital utilization associated with extreme temperature. We then analyze the fiscal impacts of temperature extremes on public medical reimbursements to Medicaid and Medicare beneficiaries as well as county government spending related to public health. Our results show that extreme heat and mild cold increase Medicaid benefit transfers, while extreme cold increases Medicare transfers. We also find that the fiscal impact of heat and cold on Medicaid costs is greater in areas with a higher share of senior populations and more generous State Medicaid programs. We also report that extreme cold and heat increase county government spending on public health and hospitals, partly financed through state grants. The positive relation between extreme temperature and public health spending implies that climate change can augment the fiscal burden on governments which eventually falls on taxpayers. Finally, this study advances our understanding of how heat and cold affect healthcare utilization of low-income and elderly populations and the roles public health insurance programs can play to mitigate the adverse health effects of temperature changes.
"The Influence of Efficiency Information on Citizen Perceptions of School District Outcomes" (coauthor) with Eric J. Brunner, Mark D. Robbins, and Bill Simonsen at Public Performance & Management Review
We conducted a survey experiment where we provided a randomly assigned group of United States citizens information about the efficiency of their school district while the control group did not receive such information. We then asked both groups questions about their perception of school district efficiency, their trust in the school district to do what is right, whether they would support taxes to increase school spending, and their desired level of school spending. We find that residents in the most efficient districts who are provided efficiency information are more likely to perceive their district as efficient and have higher levels of trust. On the other hand, we find that providing efficiency information causes residents in the least efficient school districts to favor lower levels of school spending. We also find evidence of a discontinuity at the efficiency/inefficiency margin suggesting that some citizens may employ a heuristic based on whether their district is above or below state averages.
“The Fiscal Costs of Public Health Crisis: Evidence from the Zika Crisis in the United States” (first author) with Judith Liu at Public Finance Review
This paper examines how public health crises affect public health insurance and medical assistance spending. We focus on the Zika virus outbreak in the U.S. and use nationwide county-level data from 2010 to 2019 to estimate the effects of confirmed virus exposure on public medical transfers, county government spending, and intergovernmental transfers for public health and welfare programs. Using an event study and difference-in-differences approaches, we find a temporary increase in Medicare reimbursement per enrollee during the peak of the viral outbreak. Public medical assistance transfers increased immediately in areas with high local transmissions but gradually decreased in areas with a larger share of reproductive-age women or Hispanic population. Most of the increased spending was financed by the federal and state governments. We do not find any statistically significant changes in county government spending or own-source revenue among other exposed counties.
“Do Homeowners Care about Tax Relief? Property Tax Relief and Tax Perceptions in the U.S.” at Public Budgeting and Finance
This study examines whether receiving property tax tax relief contributes to taxpayer’s preferences for local taxes and expenditures. Using a unique survey sample of 10,655 homeowners in 40 U.S. States in 2022, I test whether homeowners who receive property tax relief are more likely to prefer larger governments than those who do not. I find a negative association between property tax relief and opposition against property tax. Also, homeowners who receive property tax relief are more likely to support an increase in local taxes to finance additional public services provided by school districts and other local governments. Homeowners who receive property tax relief tend to display a weaker preference for local budget cuts and a stronger preference for property tax increases than homeowners who do not receive any relief. These results suggest that a reduction in tax bills may contribute to a higher tolerance for tax increases.
“The Impact of Performance Information on Citizen Perceptions of School District Efficiency, Trust in Government and Support for Taxes” (coauthor) with Brunner, E.J., & Robbins, M.D. & Simonsen, B., at Public Budgeting and Finance
We report the results of a random assignment experiment that examines the effect of revealing actual school district performance on three important outcomes: perceptions of efficiency, trust in government, and support for higher taxes for increased school spending. We randomly assign survey respondents to a control group or experimental condition that includes information about how their school district’s test scores compare to their state average. Our study includes 2,604 observations from an on-line panel fielded in the United States from October through December, 2022 which allows us to precisely estimate the effect of performance information on outcomes. We find that providing high performance information has significant and substantial effects that improve efficiency perceptions, trust in the school district, and support for tax increases.
"Property Valuation - Cycle Length and Assessment Outcomes" in The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics (first author) with Yilin Hou
The conventional belief regarding the frequency of property assessment has been that annual revaluation is optimal. Practices, however, vastly differ from this norm and the length of assessment cycles diverge widely across tax assessing jurisdictions. This study fills a gap in the literature by examining the relation between cycle length and assessment outcomes, using panel data from the early 2000s to 2016 in Virginia and New York as two representative states. We examine the conditional correlation between revaluation lag and assessment uniformity among tax assessing jurisdictions in Virginia. We find that assessment uniformity tends to be lower by three to six percent when revaluation is delayed by an additional year; however, the rate of deterioration does not vary across jurisdictions with different cycle lengths. In New York, we find that switching from irregular to annual assessment is positively associated with assessment uniformity and administrative costs.
“Returns to Scale in Property Assessment: Evidence from New York State’s Small Localities Coordination Program” in National Tax Journal, 2023 (first author) with Yilin Hou & John Yinger
This paper treats cooperative agreements among small tax-assessing jurisdictions as a natural experiment to explore economies of parcel scale in property assessment. Using 2003–2014 data, we estimate these scale economies using cost-function models with control functions. Findings show consistent evidence of increasing returns to parcel scale, holding assessment quality constant. Cost savings are larger at the lower end of the parcel distribution. Combining the assessment functions of two equal-sized jurisdictions each with 10,000 parcels reduces assessment costs by 46%. Local governments can save personnel, operational, and contractual costs by collaborating with nearby localities in conducting property assessments.
https://doi.org/10.1086/723127
“How Does a Reduction in Mandated Medicaid Spending Affect Local Fiscal Behaviors? Evidence from New York State” in Public Finance Review, 2021
This study exploits this discontinuity in county Medicaid outlay to estimate the impact of the relief mandate policy on county budgets and property tax levies. It bridges a gap in the public finance literature by addressing local government responses to a sudden decrease in the outlay of a large mandatory spending category. The policy reduced the effective property tax rate significantly by 6.6 to 8.1 percent on average among affected NY counties after the enactment of the policy relative to control counties. This study advances our understanding of local fiscal responses to an intergovernmental fiscal policy that changes how state and local governments share the costs of a large public social insurance program.
https://doi.org/10.1177/10911421211036008
This study exploits this discontinuity in county Medicaid outlay to estimate the impact of the relief mandate policy on county budgets and property tax levies. It bridges a gap in the public finance literature by addressing local government responses to a sudden decrease in the outlay of a large mandatory spending category. The policy reduced the effective property tax rate significantly by 6.6 to 8.1 percent on average among affected NY counties after the enactment of the policy relative to control counties. This study advances our understanding of local fiscal responses to an intergovernmental fiscal policy that changes how state and local governments share the costs of a large public social insurance program.
https://doi.org/10.1177/10911421211036008
“Business Cycles, Medicaid Generosity, and Birth Outcomes” in Population Research and Policy Review, 2018 (co-author) with Sarah Hamersma, Yilin Hou, & Doug Wolf*
Birth outcomes influence many aspects of later life health and wellbeing, making healthcare access during pregnancy a policy priority. Low-income mothers often depend on Medicaid, for which eligibility is determined by their income relative to state eligibility thresholds. The prevalence of adverse birth outcomes is known to exhibit cyclical variation, while cyclical variation in adverse birth outcomes also varies with respect to Medicaid eligibility thresholds. Our analysis uses birth-records data for 2000 through 2013, linked to quarterly county-level unemployment rates and state parental Medicaid thresholds. Using fixed-effects negative binomial models, we find that higher Medicaid generosity dampens the negative effects of recessions on birth outcomes. The extent to which Medicaid interacts with unemployment also varies according to the age and race composition of mothers; in particular, Black mothers are both most affected by unemployment and most responsive to Medicaid generosity. Given current concerns about racial gaps in both infant and maternal mortality, our findings suggest that Medicaid may be an important feature of a strategy to close gaps in the prevalence of adverse birth outcomes across racial groups, especially during bust years.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-018-9483-3
BOOK CHAPTER
Yusun Kim (2023) ‘The Role of Cities and Public Health Expenditures in the COVID-19 Era’ in Craig Johnson, Tima Moldogaziev and Justin Ross (eds.) Research Handbook on City and Municipal Finance. Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd.
Birth outcomes influence many aspects of later life health and wellbeing, making healthcare access during pregnancy a policy priority. Low-income mothers often depend on Medicaid, for which eligibility is determined by their income relative to state eligibility thresholds. The prevalence of adverse birth outcomes is known to exhibit cyclical variation, while cyclical variation in adverse birth outcomes also varies with respect to Medicaid eligibility thresholds. Our analysis uses birth-records data for 2000 through 2013, linked to quarterly county-level unemployment rates and state parental Medicaid thresholds. Using fixed-effects negative binomial models, we find that higher Medicaid generosity dampens the negative effects of recessions on birth outcomes. The extent to which Medicaid interacts with unemployment also varies according to the age and race composition of mothers; in particular, Black mothers are both most affected by unemployment and most responsive to Medicaid generosity. Given current concerns about racial gaps in both infant and maternal mortality, our findings suggest that Medicaid may be an important feature of a strategy to close gaps in the prevalence of adverse birth outcomes across racial groups, especially during bust years.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-018-9483-3
BOOK CHAPTER
Yusun Kim (2023) ‘The Role of Cities and Public Health Expenditures in the COVID-19 Era’ in Craig Johnson, Tima Moldogaziev and Justin Ross (eds.) Research Handbook on City and Municipal Finance. Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd.
